Most of us, just from our narrow research areas, know that our species (and many other species) could experience die-off or extinction this century. Some of us believe that without a technological miracle, our kids could starve to death, die in conflict, and even cannibalize one another.

The FAO told us 60% of the global population does not have enough to eat to fully develop minds and bodies. The UN told us, lifespan for most individuals on earth is determined by scarcity.

Most of us expect deliveries of non renewing resources to drastically diminish this century. We expect climate change to further diminish the earth's supporting services.

Some of us believe that this reduction will have two effects.
          1) the economically powerful will buy up what would otherwise reach the markets of the poor-
                  leaving billions without sustenance.
          2) the scarcity will cause social conflict.
                    The conflict will consume resources creating mores scarcity and more conflict.
                              This death spiral will collapse civilization.

Many of us know the human footprint is too big. Some of us believe, given our life style, the human population (with loss of fossil fuels) will soon be 150 times too big for the earth to sustain.

Even if everyone lived more simply and more equitably the contraction of footprint and the increase in fairness would not change these expectations. Only a much smaller population could produce peace and sustainability.

This conference, like most of its predecessors, failed to present either an integrated image of the human predicament or mechanisms to unwind it. Instead the presentations predominantly focused on analysis defining a sub-predicament that if solved would not change our on rushing tragedy.

Yes, the human predicament (defined by overshoot) is larger than our funders wish to contemplate. Yes, the unwinding of overshoot includes intervention into personal procreative behaviors which are driven by genetics and protected by culture.

And finally, we know that if humankind cannot find a way to limit an individual's hierarchical success the resulting scarcity will bring down civilization.

In spite of these inhibitions, a session at the BPE/USSEE conference
                            10:30 AM Monday, June 10, 2013 University of Vermont’s Davis Center

From Overshoot to Sustainability

will discuss what will probably unfold this century and what behaviors (unacceptable as they are) have the power to alter course.

                   Jack Alpert (organizer)                   alpert@skil.org                            www.skil.org

Topics and materials for session:

                                                                     URL's for content below found at www.skil.org

What is overshoot?
          What is carrying capacity ..........................................William Catton (In absentia — paper posted)
          What is thermodynamic footprint ..............................Paul Chefurka (In absentia — paper posted)
          Ecological footprint and overshoot ............................Bill Rees (oral comments possible)
          What if the future is real (Oshkosh talk) ....................Nate Hagens (In absentia — video posted)

Toward Peak overshoot.
          Overshoot as defined by declining EROEI ..............Charlie Hall (oral comments possible)
          You wouldn't be here, if ….......................................George Mobus (oral comments on blogs)
          Base run - limits to growth ........................………....Dennis Meadows et al. (In absentia)

Peak Overshoot
           A Time frame for systemic Collapse….....................Peter Goodchild (previous post)

What happens after peak overshoot?
          Scarcity conflict death spiral Parts 1-3 .......................Jack Alpert (video showing)
          The Century of Famine ........................………......... Peter Goodchild (3/2/2013)
          Let' all go Medieval ........................……….............. Jame Howard Künstler (post)

Transitions to sustainability (BAU and designed)
          Sustainable society requires non-declining EROEI.....Charlie Hall (oral comments possible)
          Estimates of sustainable population .............................Paul Chefurka (In absentia — pap.posted)
          How much degrowth is enough?.................................Jack Alpert (video showing)
          US sustainable Population 100 million …..............…..David Pimentel (In absentia — pap. posted)
          Implementing sustainability using RPD ......................Jack Alpert (video showing)